Florida Legalization Support Drops as DeSantis Battles 2026 Ballot

Support for adult-use cannabis legalization in Florida has declined in recent polling as Gov. Ron DeSantis intensifies efforts to prevent the issue from reaching voters in 2026.

The shift comes after DeSantis and state officials launched what advocates are calling a "political war" against cannabis reform, deploying state resources to oppose legalization efforts. The governor's administration has signaled it will use similar tactics that helped defeat Amendment 3 in November 2024, when the measure fell just short of the 60% threshold needed to pass.

Florida's unique constitutional amendment process requires 60% voter approval—among the highest bars in the nation. Amendment 3 garnered 56% support despite opposition from DeSantis, who used state agencies and taxpayer-funded campaigns to fight the measure.

The Numbers

Recent polling data shows a measurable drop in support for legalization, though specific figures vary by survey. The decline marks a reversal from the steady climb in support Florida had seen over the past several years. In 2020, a medical marijuana expansion received 71% approval, suggesting cannabis reform still has broad backing when framed around patient access.

But adult-use legalization faces a different political landscape. DeSantis has made opposition to recreational cannabis a centerpiece of his policy agenda, arguing that legalization would harm public health and safety. His administration directed the Florida Department of Transportation and other agencies to produce materials opposing Amendment 3.

Industry Response

Cannabis advocates say the governor's tactics amount to an abuse of state power. Smart & Safe Florida, the political committee that backed Amendment 3, has accused DeSantis of using taxpayer dollars to influence election outcomes—a claim the administration denies.

The group has not announced whether it will pursue another ballot initiative in 2026, though industry observers say the declining poll numbers could complicate fundraising efforts. Trulieve, Florida's largest medical marijuana operator, spent more than $145 million supporting Amendment 3. The company has not indicated if it would bankroll another campaign.

Meanwhile, the state's medical marijuana market continues to grow. Florida's 25 licensed operators reported over $2 billion in sales in 2023, making it one of the largest medical cannabis markets in the country. But vertical integration requirements and license caps have limited competition, leading to some of the highest marijuana prices in the nation.

What's Next

For a measure to appear on the 2026 ballot, organizers would need to collect nearly 900,000 valid petition signatures by early 2026. That timeline gives advocates roughly a year to mount a campaign—assuming they decide to move forward.

DeSantis, whose term ends in January 2027, has shown no signs of softening his stance. He recently appointed allies to key regulatory positions, including the state's Office of Medical Marijuana Use, which oversees the existing program.

Some cannabis industry analysts believe the fight over Florida legalization will continue beyond DeSantis' tenure. The state's population growth and conservative-leaning electorate make it a critical battleground for both sides of the legalization debate.

"Florida has always been a test case," said one industry consultant who requested anonymity to speak candidly. "If you can't win here with 60% support, you have to ask whether the ballot initiative strategy still works in red states."

The next major indicator will come in early 2025, when advocacy groups typically announce their ballot initiative plans. Until then, the political war over Florida cannabis appears far from over.

This article is based on original reporting by mjbizdaily.com.